Jobless Claims

The PCE Index has remained above the Federal Reserve’s target and continues to be the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for tracking inflation. Although the latest reading was not significantly above expectations, when considered alongside a number of other factors, it could contribute to the potential for a rate increase, particularly as the PCE Index has repeatedly come in higher than expected in recent months. At the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve commented that it remains committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. The Fed additionally stated that it would no longer provide forward guidance on future rate…

The latest FOMC minutes reinforced the Federal Reserve’s continued focus on price stability, with policymakers voting to maintain the current federal funds rate for the time being. However, the path forward remains uncertain, particularly as persistent inflation continues to complicate the case for additional rate cuts. In fact, several policymakers have indicated greater concern about inflation and favored tighter monetary policy at the most recent meeting. With the more recent departure of former Fed Chair Jerome Powell, there is a lot of uncertainty about where the Federal Reserve will move under the current administration. There is also a lot of…

Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reported figures that were either entirely in line with expectations or just slightly below them. This does not set any new precedent for the potential of a rate increase from the Federal Reserve, as inflation is still rising, just at a largely expected rate. Retail sales have also shown signs of a slump compared to previous quarters, with gas prices and Amazon Prime Day among the primary culprits. This isn’t necessarily a broader indicator of overall economic health, but there is certainly pressure being felt from persistent inflation across…

While unemployment rates have fallen to their lowest levels since 2025, they have not fallen for the right reasons. Many people who have dropped out of the labor force have also stopped looking for work, which can skew the unemployment numbers. This has been followed by a smaller-than-expected increase in hourly pay, which has continued to lag behind inflation, especially in the current environment. This weakness has also been reflected in a reduction in overall payrolls, indicating an overall decline in employment. As a result, these labor market conditions could make the Federal Reserve more hesitant to raise rates. U.S.…

With the Federal Reserve meeting now concluded, and the board has decided to maintain current interest rates. However, attention remains focused on the potential for rate hikes at the next meeting. While inflation has continued to decline on a month-to-month basis, the overall year-over-year inflation rate remains well above the Federal Reserve's target. The PCE Index came in within expectations and has remained largely flat for the first time since the pandemic. Even so, inflation remains a significant challenge overall, as consumers continue to feel the effects of higher fuel and energy prices, along with rising household costs. Personal income…