Jobless Claims

Last week featured a slew of releases, but the most important one as of this writing is the GDP estimates. Both the GDP and GDP deflator data have started to reverse their previous trends, raising serious concerns that the economy may be experiencing deflationary effects. This is somewhat offset by the Personal Income and Spending reports, which showed favorable numbers, as well as the Non-farm Payroll figures, which have also increased during this period. The impact of the latest tariffs and trade wars has already appeared in estimates and data releases across numerous markets. There is strong expectation that the…

While many useful indicators are set to be released this week, the previous week left us only with the Leading Economic Indicators, which showed signs of the economy slowing down in the future. Consumer Sentiment reports also indicated widespread dissatisfaction across all levels of income and education, largely due to the impacts of recent tariff decisions, which have been on hold. We should expect next week to provide a clearer picture as decisions are made in the trade war between China and the United States. The PCE Prices, Non-farm Payrolls, Chicago Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income, and GDP estimates will offer…

While the week had a significant absence of impactful data releases, there are still the notable U.S. retail figures numbers, as the turbulent tariff policies that have been announced have sent shockwaves across many industries. This time the U.S. retail sales have seen a significant jump as consumers try to get ahead of the tariff policies, although it is suspected that the subsequent data will show a significant curtailing of purchasing power by consumers. This restraint in the future is what has most analysts concerned about the future in addition to inflation rising as a result of the tariff policies.…

Last week’s inflation reports, both the CPI and PPI, came in significantly cooler than expected. However, this must be viewed in the context of the administration’s recent tariff policies. Rather than signaling a healthy reduction in inflation, the data points to signs of deflation—which can be just as damaging to the economy as high inflation. While the FOMC Minutes offered little insight regarding interest rate changes, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that no action will be taken until more data becomes available. Finally, the latest consumer sentiment report dropped to its lowest level in three years,…

The previous week has seen tremendous impacts with the Trump administration's recently revealed tariff policies, sparking widespread concern about their broad economic effects. These concerns have already led to rapid contractions in multiple markets. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has stated he is very uncertain about any moves made by the Federal Reserve and wants to wait for additional information before making decisions. Uncertainty is at an all-time high, without much relief—even in light of positive data from previous months. Without any clear direction, there is growing speculation that inflation will only increase from here. Meanwhile, employment data…