Mortgage Rates

With a relatively light week for economic releases, the primary focus of the economic landscape is the nonfarm payroll report, which has shown a positive trend over the last few releases. This should help consumers keep up with current inflation levels, although the Federal Reserve has remained firm in its commitment to reaching its 2% inflation target. The unemployment rate has also continued to trend downward after reaching a high of 4.5% last year. The economy continues to be reported as healthy, but with ongoing geopolitical conflicts and other uncertainties, inflation remains a major concern for many. The likelihood of…

The FOMC rate decision has been announced, and the Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged.In a press statement, the Federal Reserve stated that inflation risks have eased in recent months.However, recent releases of the PCE Index inflation data have shown that, while inflation remains within expectations, the current rate of 3% is still significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, which it has been aiming to achieve throughout the year. Given the current economic data releases, there are still reasons to believe that another rate hike could occur in the future. Personal income has also…

The Consumer Sentiment report was the largest release in an otherwise light week. The report showed that sentiment has improved over the last couple of months. However, this improvement comes against the backdrop of consumer sentiment having dropped more than 30 points since January and remaining at relatively low levels throughout the year. With inflation remaining stubborn and impactful, it is no surprise that consumer sentiment has taken a hit. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has shed some of its weight but continues to reflect significant borrowing amid persistent inflationary pressures. There is strong speculation that another rate increase may…

Inflation numbers are in and came in much higher than expected. Even the core inflation numbers for both reports were higher than anticipated. Core inflation is intended to exclude some of the most volatile components, including food and energy costs, painting a picture in which the Federal Reserve will need to continue its tightening measures until inflation is under control. In particular, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase above expectations, impacting businesses and potentially trickling down to consumers over time. The retail sales report also confirms that consumers have significantly slowed their purchases compared to the previous…

The FOMC Minutes and Consumer Sentiment report were the most impactful calendar items last week, further reinforcing the Federal Reserve's resolve to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate. While there is considerable speculation about another rate increase, recent analyst expectations suggest that the Fed will hold rates at their current level for some time. The Consumer Sentiment report showed a slight increase, largely driven by moderating gas prices, which have helped provide consumers with some relief.Consumer Sentiment ReportThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised higher to 49.5 in June 2026, up from a preliminary reading of…